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Oscar Breakdown & Predictions

If you read this blog regularly you should know that the first thing I hope (and certainly expect) from the 2010 Oscars is a prominent role for the Black Eyed Peas’ “I Gotta Feeling ” in the pre-show hype fueled montage. 

When can we stop having a feeling? Sometime after the Oscars is my guess.

My biggest hope is that during the Oscars someone comes out and says, “By the way, The Blind Side is actually not nominated for Best Picture.  That was a big joke.  And also, An Education was extremely boring and we apologize for nominating that so congratulations 500 Days of Summer and The Messenger – you are actually nominated for Best Picture.”  Not going to happen, but here are my predictions for the major awards and what should occur (within the realm of possibility):

BEST PICTURE

I would be OK withany of the following winning in descending order of preference: District 9, Up In The Air, Inglourious Basterds, Up, Precious, Avatar, The Hurt Locker. 

I think Inglorious Basterds is going to win in what I will call the “Norah Jones Strategy.”  In 2002, the Best Album Grammy went to Norah Jones despite The Rising by Bruce Springsteen and The Eminem Show being nominated.  I think voters split on Eminem and Sprinsgteen leaving a plurality to Norah Jones.

I like Basterds' chances.

The Hurt Locker has a lot of momentum and Avatar is the most financially successful film of all time.  But I think people who put The Hurt locker first would not have Avatar second and I do not think people that vote Avatar first would have The Hurt Locker second.  But those voters who put either of those first could very well put Basterds as their second choice.  And since Quentin Tarantino is a Hollywood favorite and an original I think he could pick up some small percentage that think it is time he won a big prize so I am putting my money on Inglorious Basterds to edge out Avatar and The Hurt Locker.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges is going to win the Oscar that Mickey Rourke should have won last year.  Jeff Bridges is a really good actor and it will be nice for him to win. 

 I would vote for Clooney for Up In The Air.  It was his best acting job yet and finally fulfilled all the love that Hollywood had bestowed prematurely on his high brow films (which were generally sort of boring  -Michael Clayton, Good Night and Good Luck and Syriana were all overrated, relatively boring movies, but Hollywood loves the high school quarterback who also hangs out with the geeks and that has been Clooney for the past decade).  And the look that Clooney gives his lady friend when he meets her at her house was one of my favorite acting moments of the year.

Best Actress

This is a two horse race.  Meryl Streep was great in Julie and Julia and this is her 134th nomination. She has won twice, but I think it is time she get another win.  She is like the Michael Jordan of actresses – she should win the MVP every year, but doesn’t because some obscure actress did something obscure and artsy or some pretty actress got fat, or naked, or sassy. And with that let’s discuss the other best actress front runner – Sandra Bullock.

The Meryl Streep of basketball.

Sandra Bullock was a B+ in The Blind Side, which was good because the movie was a C/C-.  But other than a benign racism that is sweeping the country (“Hey, we voted for a black guy, we like movies where white people save black people – damn we are awesome white folk!”) I do not understand why Meryl Streep is not guaranteed a third Oscar.  If you need ant other reasons not to root for Sandra Bullock and/or The Blind Side please watch this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_oK6EPc6QA

So I am going to go with what is right and say Meryl Streep over Bullock.

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Waltz from Inglourious Basterds might be an even bigger favorite than Heath Ledger last year.  What a great performance – he is the front runner and deserves to be.  He was so good that the Academy is considering granting him a Polanski (“a pass for a rape of a minor based on high quality work”).  I enjoyed Woody Harrelson in The Messenger and must admit I did not see The Last Station yet, but am glad to see Christopher Plummer nominated (in my mind his lack of a nomination for The Insider is still the biggest snub I can remember).

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique in Precious. Also a no-brainer.  The most raw performance I think I have ever seen.  Her motivation may have come from the fact that Mo’Nique’s husband has a hairy leg fetish, which probably means he is on the down low.  That would make most women pretty angry, but Mo’Nique took it to another level. The only thing that may detract from this for Academy voters is that the film is very black in both mood and casting.  It is sort of the Anti-Blind Side.

She has an "open relationship" with her hairy leg-loving husband. Keep it on the down low and go win your Oscar Mo'Nique!

Best Director

Without ten nominees to thin the voting, this will be between James Cameron (Avatar) and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker).  I enjoy the fact that they were married and that I think James Cameron bounced.  That will make it even more painful if she has to lose to him, which I think she will.  The breadth and technological advancements and sheer volume of time spent on Avatar should give it to Cameron.

I might go for Tarantino or Reitman (Up In The Air) with my vote. Which I don’t have.  But Avatar is pretty hard to deny.

Best Animated Feature

Up. 

The only thing that would make me madder than a Blind Side victory in any category would be Fantastic Mr. Fox winning here.  I think Wes Anderson films are incredibly irritating, though Mr. Fox was relatively enjoyable.  But Up’s first 15 minutes alone crush the competition.

A moment of silence for Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs, which was ignored and not even nominated.

Best Adapted Screenplay

I think Precious should and will win here because form what I have heard the original text is written in the first person and might pose a challenge to make into a quality film, which they did.  However, the hilarious and extremely clever In The Loop, as well as the most original film of the year, District 9 would make me happy as well.  Fu-k An Education.

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basters should win and almost definitely will win.  Part of me is rooting for Up though. It is about time Pixar got recognized for being the most consistently original and great film studio.

Best Score

I genuinely can’t remember any of the scores, so here is my list of my favorite scores of all time (shut up Star Wars fans):

1) The Last of The Mohicans

2) Brokeback Mountain (the score literally could have been called “sad and lonely cowboy”)

3) Chariots of Fire

4) Hoosiers

5) Rudy

Alright – there it is a comprehensive list of the categories you care about.  If you want incessant humorous commentary by me during the Oscars – check out www.twitter.com/JLCauvin

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The Good, The Bad and the Mo’Nique of the…

The Golden Globe Nominations (voted by the Hollywood Foreign Press) were announced today, which displayed some good judgment in parts and in others displayed why Jerry Lewis and David Hasselhoff were such international superstars.  As a movie addict who has seen or will see all or nearly all of the films nominated (I’m already close) here’s my recap of the good and bad of today’s nominations.  Contrary to my usual I will start with the good:

The Good

1) Meryl Streep is a beast.  2 more nominations bringing her total up to 1,895 career nominations.  She proves that in Hollywood if you are talented, dignified and your name is Meryl Streep you will not be forgotten as an actress after 38 years old.

2) Matt Damon getting nominated for Best Comedy Actor in The Informant.  He was incredibly funny in this movie without being a goofy caricature.  Between the Bourne series, The Informant, The Departed and his cameo on Entourage he has completely erased my annoyance with him from the late 90s as a Masshole in Good Will Hunting (great movie, but I blame the Red Sox and Williams college for my aversion to that accent).

Not sure how to quantify something like this, but Matt Damon is the best Hollywood star.  Can do comedy, drama and seems like he's grounded.  He's like George Clooney's half brother (Clooney had the better looking mother).
Not sure how to quantify something like this, but Matt Damon is the best Hollywood star. Can do comedy, drama and seems like he's grounded. He's like George Clooney's half brother (Clooney had the better looking mother).

3) Woody Harrelson for best supporting actor.  He was a beast in The Messenger.  But he should lose to Christopher Waltz from Inglorious Basterds.  That dude’s performance was the Heath Ledger of 2009.  Minus the Olsen twins fu-king and overdose.

4) Jeff Bridges nominated for best actor in a drama.  I have not seen Crazy Heart yet, but it looks like The Wrestler, but instead of wrestling, he plays country music.  Sort of like in 30 years when I star in a movie called The Comedian.  Jeff Bridges is a really underrated and versatile actor and although I think he will finally win for playing some racist grandfather when he is 80 years old (think “Driving Mr. Daisy”) it is nice to see him nominated.

5) 500 Days of Summer and Up In The Air getting lots of nominations.  2 of my top 10 movies of the year.  The best Clooney movie ever (finally all the love struck geeks in Hollywood have a legit reason to praise him instead of “loving” his dramatic (boring) movies of the last few years – Good Night and Good Luck, Syriana, Michael Clayton – all good, all overrated).  500 days of Summer is the best romantic comedy/drama I’ve seen.

6) Animated movies.  Really strong category.  2 of my top ten of the year are in this category – Up and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs.

Really really great stuff in the animated category - and how long til a porn spoof title: Slutty with a Chance of Tiger's Balls? Really really great stuff in the animated category – and how long til a porn spoof title: Slutty with a Chance of Tiger’s Balls?

 

The Bad

1) Eastbound and Down shutout.  I shouldn’t be surprised that the foreign press didn’t nominate it if the American Emmys didn’t, but to see shows like Entourage and Glee (that show has been on a steady decline – with the exceptions of Matthew Morrison and Jane Lynch – from the first episode.  However it has found it’s niche market – gays and girls – sort of like Britney Spears, so it plays to them, but to an annoyingly goofy level that its first few episodes did not have).

Like Picasso and Milli, Kenny Powers' artisitc greatness may not be recognized in life.
Like Picasso and Milli, Kenny Powers' artisitc greatness may not be recognized in life.

2) Two nominations for Sandra Bullock is  two too many.   One for The Proposal – one of the worst films of the year and one for the Blind Side where she combines two of Hollywood’s favorite shallow things – Julia Roberts (an impression of her from Erin Brockovitch) and the benevolence of whites helping blacks be their best.  Admittedly I did not see this movie, but that is because I could not stop puking during the preview.

And this is the story about how Mommy pandered for a white guilt Oscar and the foreign press fell for it!
And this is the story about how Mommy pandered for a white guilt Oscar and the foreign press fell for it!

3) The Messenger is not nominated for best picture.  I thought it was the better of the two war dramas (The Hurt Locker was very good, but I thought the Messenger was better).  Brothers is melodramatic and simple and uses musical score the way one would if they were walking a child through what emotions should be felt during different situations.  Not in the discussion.  But Tobey McGuire’s over-the-top bug eyed performance got an undeserved nomination (speaking of which, why didn’t Bill Paxton get nominated for his hilariously paranoid performance in Aliens back in 1986?)

4) Hung.  Thomas Jane got nominated for best actor in a comedy, making it the first time anyone could consider Hung a comedy.  This was the most disappointing show of 2009 and generated approximately .4 laughs per episode. 

5) No nomination for Paul Rudd.  Since the Golden Globes have a specific category for musical/comedy it is extra disappointing that his hilarious, seemingly effortless and incredibly realistic performance in I Love You Man was not recognized.

The Ugly

1) Mo’nique – I don’t like her very much and I can see her being a real diva (just look at the unnecessary apostrophe in her name for starters) once she wins an Oscar, but her performance in Precious on a scale of 1-10 was a 12, to quote one of Tiger Woods’ skanks.

2) Television Actress Nominee Anna Paquin – she’s just not that pretty and I want you to know that I know that.  For God’s sake when Michael Strahan watches True Blood and even he goes, “Damn she needs to fix those teeth.”

To quote Jacobim Mugatu - "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!" I like True Blood and I don't mind Anna Paquin naked, but she really is not that attractive.
To quote Jacobim Mugatu - "I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!" I like True Blood and I don't mind Anna Paquin naked, but she really is not that attractive.