My last movie blog for a while, or until I see another movie

Well the nominations are out and for the first time I have seen all Best Picture nominees by the day of the nominations. Here is my analysis and predictions:

BEST PICTURE

The Departed and Iwo Jima are the only two films from my Top 10 in the list and I believe The Departed is the Best film nominated. The Queen is a B/B+. Nicely done movie I could care less about. Little Miss Sunshine is this year’s Sideways. Granted it made me laugh and I did enjoy it, but so many films were screwed over by LMS and The Queen. Iwo Jima is a very fine film and can’t be counted out. However I believe it will be between Babel and the Departed. Babel is very good, but The Departed is near great.

Should Win – The Departed

Will Win – Babel

Should have been nominated in place of The Queen and Little Miss Sunshine -Dreamgirls and United 93

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win – Paul Greengrass for United 93. The best movie I have seen since Million Dollar Baby. Very simple. They could not nominate United 93 for Best Picture because of the “too soon” argument (understandable, but see the movie anyway). This nomination is a compromise and should be a victory.

Will Win – Can Scorsese really be denied again? Yes, because Clint Eastwood is going to win for Letters From Iwo Jima. I firmly believe that Martin Scorsese is required to put Robert DeNiro into his next Oscar movie and only with DeNiro can he win the elusive Oscar. Meanwhile Clint Eastwood will become the Tom Brady to Scorsese’s Peyton Manning (eventually he will win, but he needs DeNiro/Adam Vinateri)

BEST ACTOR

Should win – I have not seen 3 of the 5 performances here, but I will by the Oscars, but I am sure that DiCaprio should win for Blood Diamond. Best performance of his excellent young career. Forest Whitaker is one of my least favorite actors alive, but was strong in The Last King of Scotland.

Will Win – Peter O’Toole if Scorsese does not win (only one sentimental choice per year). Forest Whitaker if Scorsese wins best Director. If Peter O’Toole does not win he will be 0 for 8 in Oscars. What a loser. Lawrence of Arabia most overrated film of all time.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win – Dame Judi Dench for Notes on a Scandal

Will Win – Helen Mirren from the Queen. (Note on Best Actress – roles for actresses often are like female comics for me – I generally don’t care what they are saying, but occasionally they make me take notice either because of 1) startling talent or 2) by exposing their breasts – see Hilary Swank for the former and Halle Berry’s “Oscar Winning Role” for the latter). Judi Dench is the former and with none in the Halle Berry category – although if Kate Winslet pulls a Titanic in Little Children I may have to readjust Dench and Mirren’s chances – I see it between The Queen and Dame Dench.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should win – www.jlcauvin.com’s entertainer of the 2006 Mark Wahlberg (I really think they are rewarding his work in Invincible with his nomination for The Departed). But he did steal every scene in the Departed.

Will Win – Eddie Murphy – All I can say is Jimmy Got Soul – my second favorite performance in this category

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win – I know Jennifer Hudson was awesome in Dreamgirls, but Cate Blanchett was excellent in Notes on A Scandal. Either way it should and will be one of these two.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should Win – the very creative Pan’s Labyrinth.

Will Win – Letters from Iwo Jima for the unique angle of telling the story from the “enemy” side. And in Japanese. Either way the screenplay will not be in English

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should Win – Notes on a Scandal

Will win – Notes on a Scandal

Bet Animated Feature

Should win – Cars

Will win – I have to put Cars, after renting Monster House and puking through Happy Feet because if Happy Feet wins I will break my TV and not be able to watch the rest of the Oscars

Enjoy the State of the Union tonight. This ends movie season on JLCauvin.com